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<item><title>Quantum-Safe Money, ASML&#x27;s Order Book, and Why Inference Isn&#x27;t</title><link>https://joxcap.com/issues/2026-10-14/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://joxcap.com/issues/2026-10-14/</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 07:00:00 +0100</pubDate><description>GM, and welcome to the first JoxCap in your inbox. This is a short, plain-spoken brief on stocks, macro, AI and crypto. It lands at 07:00 UK every Monday…</description>
<category>AI</category><category>Crypto</category><category>Macro</category><category>Stocks</category>
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<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GM, and welcome to the first JoxCap in your inbox. This is a short, plain-spoken brief on stocks, macro, AI and crypto. It lands at 07:00 UK every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, with a week in review on Sunday. Every fact gets a source, and when a number is an estimate or self-reported, I'll say so.</p><p>Wednesdays carry a project spotlight. Today it's Quantus, a month-old chain built for a world where today's crypto signatures can be broken. Coinbase just published its own Bitcoin post-quantum roadmap, which makes the timing sharper. After that: why "inference is the new money" is the wrong frame for TAO, ASML's blowout Q3, mixed bank earnings, and CPI at 13:30 UK.</p><ol><li><strong>Project spotlight: Quantus (QTC), money built for the day after Q-Day</strong>: Ticker check first. This is Quantus Network, the post-quantum proof-of-work chain. It isn't Quant (QNT), and it isn't the two other "QTC" tickers on CoinGecko (Qubitcoin and Qitcoin). <a href="https://www.quantus.com/whitepaper/v0.4.1/">Quantus whitepaper v0.4.1</a></li><li><strong>Inference is not money. It's the newest commodity.</strong>: There's a line doing the rounds in the Bittensor community: "inference is the new money". It's a good line. Taken seriously, it's also wrong, and the difference matters for how you value TAO. <a href="https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/">a16z: Welcome to LLMflation</a></li><li><strong>Markets: CPI day, and bitcoin inside its range</strong>: US September CPI is out at 13:30 UK. A Wall Street Journal survey of 14 bank forecasters, compiled by InvestingLive, has headline up about 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year, from 3.4% in August, driven mostly by energy. Core is seen at about 0.22% on the month, with the annual rate split between 2.4% and 2.5%. It's the last major print before the 27–28 October FOMC, and in-line numbers support a hold. A hot core reading is the one that would revive talk of hikes. <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-cpi-preview-14-investment-bank-forecasters-see-energy-lifting-headline-to-3-6-core-held-near-0-2/">InvestingLive CPI preview</a></li><li><strong>ASML: demand already outruns 2028 capacity</strong>: ASML reported Q3 net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5%. Installed-base management came in at €3.3 billion. Q4 sales are guided at €14.2–15.2 billion. Full-year 2026 sales are now expected at €44–45 billion, with a gross margin around 56%. The sharper line was capacity: management said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and it is looking at further capacity increases for 2028. <a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/Globe+Newswire/ASML+reports+%E2%82%AC11.7+billion+total+net+sales+and+%E2%82%AC5.0+billion+net+income+in+Q3+2026/27182490.html">ASML Q3 2026 results</a></li><li><strong>Banks: JPMorgan misses, Goldman clears the bar</strong>: Four big US banks reported on Tuesday. JPMorgan posted net income of $15.3 billion, or $5.57 a share ($5.75 excluding securities losses), a rare miss against consensus near $5.90. Goldman Sachs reported diluted EPS of $17.01 against expectations near $13.02, and revenue of $18.68 billion against about $16.71 billion, led by equities trading. Wells Fargo and Citi also printed. The tape split: trading and markets strength for Goldman, a softer print from the biggest bank just ahead of CPI. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/bank-earnings-live-updates.html">CNBC bank earnings</a></li><li><strong>Coinbase pushes Bitcoin toward post-quantum prep</strong>: Coinbase published a technical note on Bitcoin's post-quantum readiness. It holds about 5% of all bitcoin in custody and wants the community to start a multi-year migration before any cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists. Preferences include flexible output designs such as P2MR (BIP-360) and P2TRv2, and staged hybrid paths that keep classical and post-quantum spending options during the transition. Abandoned and unmigrated coins are treated as a separate governance question that shouldn't block the engineering work. <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/blog/working-together-on-btc-post-quantum-readiness">Coinbase: Bitcoin post-quantum readiness</a></li></ol>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>SpaceX Hits Telcos, Oil Softens, Bitcoin Holds</title><link>https://joxcap.com/issues/2026-10-12/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://joxcap.com/issues/2026-10-12/</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 07:00:00 +0100</pubDate><description>GM. Markets reopen after a weekend that changed the tape. SpaceX&#x27;s spectrum deal crushed the big three telcos on Friday. Oil is slipping this morning on…</description>
<category>AI</category><category>Commodities</category><category>Crypto</category><category>Macro</category><category>Stocks</category>
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<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GM. Markets reopen after a weekend that changed the tape. SpaceX's spectrum deal crushed the big three telcos on Friday. Oil is slipping this morning on Trump's "energy ceasefire" claim, even as Kyiv says Russian strikes continued. Bitcoin is back above $84,000 despite last week's biggest ETF outflow since June. Seven things before the open.</p><ol><li><strong>SpaceX buys the spectrum. Telcos get the bill.</strong>: SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz portfolio, the low-band book Grain took from T-Mobile earlier this year, for about $8 billion in cash (WSJ via Axios). On Friday, T-Mobile closed down 13.6%, AT&amp;T down 11% and Verizon down 10.4%; Axios put the three carriers' combined market-cap hit near $36 billion. Crown Castle jumped about 15.6%. SpaceX already has mid-band spectrum from EchoStar and FCC approval for 15,000 next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites. The pitch is indoor coverage plus satellite dead-zone fill, on spectrum most phones already support. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/09/spacex-8-billion-spectrum">Axios</a></li><li><strong>Oil softens on an "energy ceasefire" Kyiv didn't confirm</strong>: WTI opened the week down about 1.8% near $90.28, and Brent near $103.48, after President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed an immediate "energy ceasefire" and that Russia would supply 300,000 metric tons of diesel under a partial sanctions easing. Zelensky said the ceasefire was news to him, then said Ukraine would match it if Russia did. He later said Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants continued after Trump's post. Hormuz risk and Gulf shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias are still in the background. <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/12/bitcoin-shrugs-off-etf-outflows-to-trade-above-usd84-000-as-oil-falls">CoinDesk</a></li><li><strong>Bitcoin holds $84k after a $681M ETF bleed</strong>: US spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $681 million leave last week, the largest weekly outflow since June, mostly on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday flipped to a small $21 million inflow. Bitcoin still rebounded toward $84,000 over the weekend as oil eased and risk appetite improved. Ether was bid near $2,560. Analysts flag $82,000 as the level bulls need to hold, with Wednesday's CPI as the next catalyst. <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/12/bitcoin-shrugs-off-etf-outflows-to-trade-above-usd84-000-as-oil-falls">CoinDesk</a></li><li><strong>Google locks 3.6 GW of power, a quarter of it new nuclear</strong>: Google contracted 3,590 megawatts from Constellation Energy in PJM: a 20-year deal for 890 MW of new capacity from uprates at 11 reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, plus 2,700 MW of long-term supply from the existing fleet. First upgraded power is due in 2028. Constellation expects more than $4.3 billion of new investment. Shares jumped about 12% on the day of the announcement. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/google-enters-massive-3point6-gw-power-deal-with-constellation-energy-.html">CNBC</a></li><li><strong>Anthropic: Claude worked around its limits on live sites</strong>: Anthropic said Claude models took unintended actions on real websites during evaluations and internal use, including some US government sites. Cases included exploiting a server flaw, submitting real forms, using access tokens meant for paying users, and routing through URL shorteners. One invented tip reached the Philadelphia Police Department; the department says it was flagged as spam. Anthropic says impact was minimal and has cut live internet from all internal evaluations. <a href="https://threatfrontier.com/articles/anthropic-claude-unintended-actions-real-websites">Threat Frontier</a></li><li><strong>Thailand opens the door to Bitcoin and Ether ETFs</strong>: Thailand's SEC finalised 11 rules allowing locally established Bitcoin and Ether ETFs to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The framework takes effect on 16 October. Funds must passively track one asset, hold at least 80% average annual exposure to it, use Thai-supervised custodians, and cannot be bought on margin. The effective date is not a launch date: managers still have to apply and clear the process. <a href="https://crypto.news/thailand-to-allow-bitcoin-ethereum-etfs/">crypto.news</a></li><li><strong>Evernorth brings 473 million XRP to Nasdaq</strong>: Evernorth completed its SPAC merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II on 9 October. Common stock is expected to start Nasdaq trading today under XRPN. At close the company held about 473 million XRP and roughly $300 million in gross cash. Backers include Arrington, SBI, Ripple, Pantera, Kraken and GSR. The plan is to grow XRP per share through ecosystem deployment. Closing bell is scheduled for Wednesday. <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/featured/xrp-gaining-nasdaq-exposure-as-evernorth-takes-473m-xrp-public/">Bitcoin.com News</a></li></ol>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>5% Yields, $100 Oil and an AI Reality Check</title><link>https://joxcap.com/issues/2026-10-11/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://joxcap.com/issues/2026-10-11/</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 07:00:00 +0100</pubDate><description>GM. The backdrop going into this week is loud. The US 10-year is paying over 5%, UK long gilts are at their highest yields since 1998, and Brent is back…</description>
<category>AI</category><category>Commodities</category><category>Crypto</category><category>Macro</category><category>On-chain &amp; Research</category><category>Stocks</category>
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<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GM. The backdrop going into this week is loud. The US 10-year is paying over 5%, UK long gilts are at their highest yields since 1998, and Brent is back above $100. Stocks shrugged it off anyway: the S&amp;P 500 rose about 1.2% on the week to 7,811. Now earnings season and US CPI land in the same few days. Eight things worth knowing before Monday.</p><ol><li><strong>Earnings season starts Tuesday: banks first, then the chip giants</strong>: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo all report on Tuesday morning, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. ASML reports Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. TSMC has already said third-quarter revenue hit a record NT$1.49 trillion, above its own guidance, so Thursday is all about margins, capex and what it says about AI demand next year. Bank stocks have been soft as long-term yields jumped, which lowers the bar going in. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/jim-cramer-week-ahead-bank-earnings-ai-chips.html">CNBC</a></li><li><strong>OpenAI's revenue reality check knocks AI stocks</strong>: CNBC confirmed that OpenAI told investors it hit roughly $50B in annualised revenue at the end of September. That's well short of the $68B figure widely reported last month, which apparently included partners' gross revenue. AI names sold off on Thursday: Nvidia fell 3%, Oracle nearly 6% and CoreWeave nearly 8%, with AMD, Broadcom and Intel down 4–5%. By Friday the Nasdaq had bounced and finished the week up 0.6%. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html">CNBC</a></li><li><strong>Jefferies' Chris Wood: the AI build-out risks "massive capital destruction"</strong>: In his GREED &amp; fear note, Wood called much of the roughly $695B in US hyperscaler capex for 2026 "malinvestment". His reasons: cheap Chinese open-source models keep winning share, token prices keep falling, and more of the spending is funded with debt. He still likes picks-and-shovels names like semis. <a href="https://cryptobriefing.com/jefferies-warns-us-ai-capital-destruction/">Crypto Briefing</a></li><li><strong>US: 5.3% to lend for ten years, and CPI on Wednesday</strong>: The Treasury sold $39B of 10-year notes on Wednesday at a 5.30% yield, the highest at a 10-year auction since November 2000. Demand was strong, with a 2.77 bid-to-cover. The Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% in September, and the minutes showed most officials expect another hike this year. September CPI lands on Wednesday at 08:30 ET (13:30 UK), with forecasts of about 3.6–3.7% headline and 2.5% core. <a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2026/10/07/thoughts-on-the-10-year-treasury-auctions-5-30-yield-highest-since-2000-it-created-demand-bond-bloodbath-continued/">Wolf Street</a></li><li><strong>UK gilts: the highest borrowing costs since 1998</strong>: On Thursday the 30-year gilt yield hit 6.047%, its highest since 1998, and the 10-year reached 5.527%, its highest since 2007 (LSEG data via Dow Jones). Two Bank of England policymakers, chief economist Huw Pill and Megan Greene, both sounded uneasy about inflation, and markets priced about an 86% chance of a rate hike in November. Chancellor John Healey's first Budget on 28 October is the next big test. <a href="https://hk.marketscreener.com/news/u-k-gilt-yields-hit-multidecade-highs-as-boe-officials-signal-inflation-concerns-ce785ddfdb89f527">MarketScreener (Dow Jones)</a></li><li><strong>Oil back above $100, and gold bounces off its lows</strong>: Brent jumped about 4% on Thursday to settle at $104.28. Tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest level since the Iran war began, and Hurricane Isaias shut about 1.3 million barrels a day of US Gulf output. Oil eased on Friday after President Trump said the US wouldn't strike Iran before the 3 November midterms. Gold went the other way: after a two-month low earlier in the week, spot gold climbed back to around $4,185 on Friday as the dollar and yields eased. <a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-09/gold-silver-rebound-dollar-yields-and-oil-ease-kitco-am-report">Kitco</a></li><li><strong>Ledger confirms a spy implant in a resold wallet</strong>: Ledger has confirmed that at least one device sold through CryptoBilis, a Southeast Asian reseller, carried an "unauthorized hardware implant". Independent trackers put suspected losses at around $86–93M, but Ledger hasn't verified those numbers. CryptoBilis has stopped selling hardware wallets. Ledger's advice: if you bought from them, don't set the device up, and if you already did, move your funds to a new device with a new seed. <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/security/ledger-confirms-hidden-hardware-implant-in-affected-users-wallet/">Bitcoin.com News</a></li><li><strong>Robinhood x T. Rowe Price: an active ETF goes on-chain?</strong>: Robinhood is exploring a Stock Token on Robinhood Chain tied to an actively managed ETF from T. Rowe Price, which runs about $1.9T. It's early: no fund has been named, there's no launch date, and plenty of approvals are still needed. Like Robinhood's other stock tokens, it wouldn't be available to US users. <a href="https://crypto.news/robinhood-explores-tokenized-etf/">crypto.news</a></li></ol>]]></content:encoded></item>
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